Clever AI Forecaster

Clever AI Forecaster is your intelligent growth engine. It uses machine learning to forecast your sales and simulate the impact of cashback campaigns over 30, 60, or 90 days—helping you invest smarter, not harder.

With a few clicks, you can:

• Forecast your organic sales growth
• Simulate different cashback campaign scenarios
• Evaluate forecast reliability and cost trade-offs
• Optimise decisions before launching campaigns

Getting Started

Step 1: Navigate to Forecaster

From your Hello Clever dashboard, go to:
Site Overview → Forecaster

You'll land on a dashboard showing:

• Sales trend over the last 30 days
• A prompt to begin forecasting

Step 2: Run an Organic Sales Forecast

Click “Forecast” to project your organic sales. Choose a forecast duration. You can use the following options:

• 30 days
• 60 days
• 90 days

💡 The longer the forecast range, the broader the confidence interval. For strategic planning, we recommend 60–90 days. For tactical campaigns, stick to 30 days.

The result includes:

• Forecasted sales value (e.g. $11,873.02)
• Percentage change over previous period
• Confidence range
• Forecast reliability (e.g. 85%)

How We Forecast - Clever AI uses:

• Historical sales volume
• Seasonal and weekday trends
• Customer transaction behaviour
• Cashback engagement data (if applicable)

It then computes your projected baseline using a trained time series model with variance bands.

Step 3: Simulate a Cashback Campaign

Scroll to the “Want to boost your sales?” card.

Set your scenario:

• Select cashback percentage (e.g. 10%, 20%)
• Choose duration (30, 60, or 90 days)
• Click Forecast

Clever AI will now show:

• Forecasted sales with cashback
• Uplift over organic sales
• Estimated cashback cost
• Visual overlays comparing all outcomes

Example Output

	Without Cashback	With Cashback
Forecasted Sales	$11,873.02	$411,400.10
Uplift	+95.9%	+223.23%
Cashback Cost	$0.00	$82,280.02

Forecast graphs show:

• Solid blue: historical sales
• Dotted blue: forecast without cashback
• Dotted green: forecast with cashback
• Shaded range: confidence interval

Step 4: Forecast Different Scenarios

Want to test multiple options?

Scroll to “Forecast a different scenario”, adjust:

• Cashback % (5–50%)
• Campaign duration (30, 60, or 90 days)

Click Forecast again.

Clever AI instantly recalculates new:

• Forecasted sales
• Projected uplift
• Cashback cost
• Confidence range

How to Interpret Forecasts

Forecast Reliability

Each forecast includes a reliability score (e.g. 85%). This reflects model confidence based on:

• Data consistency
• Pattern strength
• External volatility (holidays, seasonality)

Lower reliability = wider confidence bands.

Sales Uplift vs. Cashback Cost

Use this forecast to determine ROI:

Example:

• Forecasted uplift: $399,527.09
• Cashback cost: $82,280.02
• ROI = 4.85x return on cashback spend

Use Cases

Use Case	How Forecaster Helps
Campaign Planning	Simulate before launching to ensure ROI
Budget Allocation	Choose which weeks or SKUs to boost with cashback
Quarterly Planning	Use 90-day forecast to inform marketing calendar
A/B Campaign Testing	Run two simulations with different cashback %
Customer Segment Targeting	Combine with insights to focus on VIP or first-time users

Tips & Best Practices

• Start with 30-day forecasts to build confidence
• For broader decisions, run 60–90 day simulations
• Simulate multiple cashback %s to find sweet spots
• Combine with Clever Insights for customer-level targeting
• Use forecasts to guide cashback campaign creation

Forecast Limitations

• Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees
• High variance may occur in low-volume or newly onboarded stores
• Accuracy improves as more transactional history is captured
• Consider external events (holidays, economic shifts) when interpreting results